India's Crude Imports from Russia Surge Back Towards Peak Levels Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

India’s crude imports from Russia are surging back towards peak levels last seen during the 2022–23 supply realignment, with March volumes rebounding sharply as refiners pivot away from disrupted Middle East flows. Shipments from Russia have already reached 39.9 million barrels in the first 20 days of March, compared with 29.1 million barrels in February, putting imports on track to touch 60–65 million barrels for the full month—levels comparable to the historic highs of over 66 million barrels recorded in May 2023, according to Kpler data. The rebound follows a sharp dip in recent months, with Russian imports falling from 55 million barrels in November 2025 to 33.8 million barrels in January 2026, and further to February lows, before reversing course. The shift has been driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have sharply curtailed flows from traditional suppliers. Imports from Iraq plunged to 6.8 million barrels in March from 27.2 million barrels in February, while those from Saudi Arabia declined to 10.8 million barrels from 28.4 million barrels over the same period. “Russian inventories available on water have emerged as a crucial buffer for Indian refiners… with flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining disrupted for the past 20 days,” said Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler. “Russian crude arrivals this month are estimated at around 60–65 million barrels, levels last seen during the peak of Russian crude processing in India.” Other Gulf supplies have also been hit. UAE imports dropped sharply to 2.3 million barrels in March from 15.5 million barrels in February, underscoring the scale of the disruption. The data point to a rapid reversal in sourcing strategy. After a brief phase of diversification away from Russian crude—driven by concerns over export restrictions on refined products—refiners have returned to Russian barrels amid tightening supply conditions. “Russian barrels remain central to India’s crude import strategy… with Russia’s share rising from just 1–2% pre-2022 to as high as 40–43%,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. He added that the ongoing crisis has accelerated the pivot. “With Middle Eastern crude accounting for nearly 50% of India’s requirements, the most practical option was to return to Russian barrels… imports have rebounded to around 1.8 mbd and could reach 2.0–2.2 mbd,” Ritolia said. While alternative suppliers such as Angola (7.5 million barrels), Brazil (1.5 million barrels) and Nigeria (under 1 million barrels) have partly filled the gap, they remain insufficient to offset the sharp decline in Gulf supplies. Meanwhile, supplies from the US have remained subdued, with India receiving around 3 million barrels so far this month—nearly half of February’s inflows. From the Gulf region, imports have stood at about 10.8 million barrels from Saudi Arabia, 6.8 million barrels from Iraq, and 2.3 million barrels from the UAE in March to date. India, which imports nearly 88% of its crude oil needs, has increasingly relied on Russian crude since 2022, drawn by discounted pricing and logistical flexibility. “Heightened energy security concerns have prompted even those refiners who were previously cautious to increase their intake of Russian barrels,” Dubey said. With Middle East disruptions persisting and Russian volumes rising sharply, India’s import basket is once again tilting decisively towards Moscow, with flows now nearing—and potentially set to match—their peak levels recorded during the 2022–23 surge, reinforcing Russia’s role as a critical supply anchor in times of crisis.