Israel's Election: A Referendum on Netanyahu's Leadership and Foreign Policy

Going by pre-election estimates, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his principal challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defence Forces, is expected to secure a majority in the 120-member Knesset in Israel. Such an outcome would be far from unusual — Israel held five general elections between 2019 and 2022. Netanyahu is seeking a seventh term as PM, and the election is widely being viewed as a referendum on his handling of Hamas’s horrific terror attack three years ago and Israel’s devastation of Gaza in response, which has drawn widespread international condemnation. Eisenkot, too, has made the October 7 attacks central to his campaign, holding Netanyahu responsible for what he describes as the country’s gravest security failure. With both leaders likely to depend on smaller parties to cobble together a governing coalition after the vote on October 27, that question may not be unambiguously settled. In any case, whoever takes the reins of power, little will change in Israel’s foreign policy. Netanyahu and Eisenkot may differ on domestic issues, from exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men from military service to the powers of the judiciary. But on Palestine, Iran and the wider region, their differences lie more in the means than the ends. Eisenkot has been critical of Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war, but like all Jewish parties except left-wing Democrats, he opposes Palestinian statehood. On Iran, he has called Netanyahu “unfit for launching another operation” without ruling out future strikes to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In Lebanon and Syria, he supports retaining what Israel calls “security zones”. And on the West Bank, while pledging to crack down on settler violence, he has remained ambiguous on settlement expansion. A change of guard after the election may alter tactics, but is unlikely to fundamentally change Israel’s strategic course. Nevertheless, this election could prove pivotal for Israel and the region. US President Donald Trump ’s endorsement of Netanyahu shows how closely the Israeli leadership is tied to Washington’s West Asia strategy. With reports that the US and Israeli militaries are preparing for fresh strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3, the outcome in Israel is bound to have implications for the conflict’s next phase. The stakes, as framed by the energy crisis triggered by the war, are global.