Persian Gulf Oil Exports Surge Despite Visible Flows, Goldman Sachs Reports

A surge in oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz with tracking systems switched off is masking the scale of Persian Gulf supply recovery, with Goldman Sachs estimating actual exports at 15-16 million barrels per day (mb/d) against visible flows of only around 10 mb/d, even as tensions continue to disrupt one of the world’s key energy routes. Brent crude eased 75 cents, or 0.79%, to $94.77 a barrel by 1230 GMT, after its recent rise on renewed geopolitical and shipping risks. In its September 2 Oil Tracker report, Goldman Sachs Research highlighted the growing disconnect between observable tanker movements and estimated physical exports as vessels increasingly transit the Strait without transmitting Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals. “Accounting for dark crossings, we estimate recent total Persian Gulf oil exports at roughly 15-16mb/d or 2/3 of pre-war levels,” Goldman said. Visible Persian Gulf exports were around 10 mb/d on a seven-day moving average. Goldman has raised its estimate of Persian Gulf oil flows by 5 mb/d in just two weeks, attributing much of the revision to untracked tanker traffic. The increase “likely results from a ramp up in oil tankers crossing the Strait near the coast of Oman with their AIS off,” the bank said. The development makes it increasingly difficult for the oil market to determine how much supply is actually moving through the conflict-hit region. Vessel tracking had already become less reliable by August as more tankers switched off AIS while navigating Hormuz. Goldman nevertheless estimates a 7.9 mb/d net hit to Persian Gulf flows. Shipping risks also remain elevated, with the report citing at least six confirmed tanker strikes over the past 10 days in the Persian Gulf and near the Red Sea. Separately, TankerTrackers estimates crude exports specifically through Hormuz at 4.9 mb/d since the second US blockade began on July 14, compared with 16.63 mb/d before the conflict. Its data show tracked crude flows dropping to 3.45 mb/d between February 28 and April 13, and further to 2.72 mb/d during the first US blockade from April 13 to June 18. Flows recovered to 10 mb/d during the June 18-July 14 MoU period. Across 186 days of conflict, 779 million barrels of crude moved through Hormuz, averaging 4.19 mb/d, according to TankerTrackers. Despite continuing disruptions, Goldman said rising dark transits were helping the market adjust. “Increasing market adaptability to the conflict, including a rise in dark transits and the price sensitivity of China crude imports, will likely continue to moderate the upside to crude prices,” it said, assuming no major damage to oil infrastructure.