SBI Q4 Results Preview: Treasury Income Expected to Dent Profit

SBI Q4 results preview:State Bank of India could see a major dent in its profit in the March quarter of FY26 (Q4FY26) as analysts expect a significant decline in the public sector bank’s treasury income.The anticipated change in profit, however, varies across brokerages in the range of -12 per cent to +8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).SBI Q4 results date, timeSBI said a meeting of the Central Board of the Bank will be held on Friday, May 8, 2026, to consider the financial results of the bank for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026.The bank also said an ‘Analyst Meet’ will be conducted on May 8, 2026 at 5.15 PM post Q4FY26 results announcement.SBI dividend announcementSBI shareholders may note that the Board could also consider declaration of dividend, if any, for the FY26.Also ReadStock Market LIVE: GIFT Nifty gains 200 pts; Kospi hits new high; US seeks Iran dealSwiggy Q4 preview: Loss may narrow YoY, rev to rise 40%; QC growth eyedStocks to Watch today: Hero MotoCorp, Paytm, L&T, Bajaj Auto, PolicybazaarOnEMI Technology IPO allotment today; check status, GMP, listing dateNifty strategy, May 6: Key levels; L&T Finance, CG Power among top picksSBI Q4FY26 results expectation: Brokerages share profit, NII, loan growth estimatesNomuraAnalysts at Nomura expect SBI’s net profit to remain flat in Q4FY26, at ₹18,700 crore, compared to ₹18,640 crore in Q4FY25. The profit may, however, decline around 11 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).Likewise, the brokerage expects SBI’s operating profit to slip 6 per cent Y-o-Y and 10 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹29,540 crore in the March quarter.Nomura said Q4FY26 PAT headwind is treasury-driven as yields on government securities have hardened during the quarter.That said, the bank’s net interest income (NII) may rise around 9 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹46,620 crore on the back of a healthy 17 per cent Y-o-Y (5 per cent Q-o-Q) loan growth and 11 per cent Y-o-Y (5 per cent Q-o-Q) deposit growth.In absolute terms, loan book is seen at ₹48.50 trillion and deposit book at ₹59.74 trillion.“NIMs may remain steady at 2.7 per cent vs 2.8 per cent in Q3FY26. Yield repricing is expected to be offset by CoF reduction,” the brokerage said.The management’s commenatry on deposit mobilisation strategy, NIMs trajectory, and credit cost outlook will be key monitorables.Kotak Institutional EquitiesAnalysts at Kotak Institutional Equities expect a 12 per cent Y-o-Y and approximately 22 per cent Q-o-Q fall in Q4 profit to ₹16,474 crore.They also see an 11 per cent yearly decline in operating profit at ₹27,743.5 crore, led by lower treasury income. The brokerage estimates non-interest income to fall by 35 per cent Y-o-Y/14.3 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹15,730.5 crore.KIE said it is building 6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in NII at ₹45,361.4 crore, despite 14 per cent loan growth, due to higher cost of funds and pass through of recent rate cuts.Advances are seen at ₹47.48 trillion and Deposits at ₹58.38 trillion (up 8 per cent Y-o-Y/2.4 per cent Q-o-Q).The brokerage expects NIM to contract by 9 bps Y-o-Y and 7 bps Q-o-Q to 2.7 per cent.“We expect slippages at ~0.9 per cent of loans (normalisation of slippages over time) but no fresh concerns are likely in any portfolio for the bank. We are likely to see lower recovery and upgrades as well,” it said.Nuvama Institutional EquitiesNuvama analysts remain optimistic about SBI’s Q4 earnings as the brokerage sees around 8 per cent Y-o-Y rise in the net profit at ₹20,090 crore.This is supported by a 10-per cent jump in NII (₹47,090 crore), and a mere 5.7 per cent Y-o-Y decline in other income (₹16,340 crore), keeping total revenue flat at ₹66,550 crore.Nuvama Equities, however, sees a 54.7 per cent Y-o-Y slide in Treasury income at ₹3,120 crore.Further, with a 0.1 per cent Y-o-Y rise in operating expenditure, the brokerage pegs Operating profit at ₹30,810 crore, down just 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y.Opex may rise 16.5 per cent and Operating profit may fall 6.2 per cent sequentially.As regards asset quality, Nuvama expects provisions to decline by 37.5 per cent Y-o-Y and 10.7 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹4,020 crore. Further, gross NPAs are seen falling around 8 per cent Y-o-Y/4 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹70,860 crore.Slippages, however, are seen rising 12 per cent Y-o-Y/flat Q-o-Q to ₹4,840 crore.Mirae Asset SharekhanAnalysts at Mirae Asset Sharekhan estimate SBI’s Q4FY26 NII to rise 9.1 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹46,664.2 crore, aiding a 7.9-per cent rise in net profit at ₹20,116.4 crore.This, it said, would be on the back of a 14.5-per cent Y-o-Y loan growth. The brokerage sees NIMs broadly stable with lagged deposit benefits.Strong fee income and benign credit costs could offset treasury pressure and higher opex, it added.