Sheikh Hasina's Political Comeback in Exile: A Complicated Web of Interests

Wednesday’s press conference, during which exiled former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said she cannot “stay away” while her “beloved countrymen are suffering” , comes less than six months after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led government took office. Even though the Awami League was barred from contesting, PM Tarique Rahman’s administration is seen to have restored a measure of legitimacy to the political system. Hasina, who was sentenced to death by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal, remains a deeply unpopular figure in her country for several reasons, including her government’s heavy-handed response to the 2024 student protests. Against this backdrop, comes her announcement of a political comeback while being in exile in India. Her timing is fraught, a mob hurled petrol bombs at the residence of former Bangladesh cricket captain and party member Shakib Al Hasan after he joined Hasina virtually. It also comes when New Delhi is working to rebuild ties with Dhaka after one-and-a-half years of strained relations with the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government. India was right to offer Hasina refuge, especially given the concerns over the blatant unfairness of the legal proceedings against her in Bangladesh. But while a sanctuary offers her a home away from home, turning it into a political platform is problematic. The personal struggle of the former PM — who once anchored the close relationship between neighbours bound together by geography, security, culture — is filled with challenges. Yet, she must surely know that her political aspirations cannot bruise New Delhi’s relationship with the democratically elected Rahman government. Rahman’s election, followed by high-level exchanges between the two governments, has opened the door to a pragmatic reset. This is even as difficult issues – from illegal border crossings to the future of the Ganga Water Treaty – remain unresolved. Dhaka’s sharp reaction to Wednesday’s event, in spite of New Delhi making it clear that it was not involved, is thin-skinned and hardly helps the two countries. Indian investment, technical cooperation and infrastructure financing have contributed to Bangladesh’s growth story. India has stakes in Bangladesh’s power and connectivity sectors. New Delhi is also wary of Dhaka’s possible drift into Beijing’s orbit. The two countries share a 4,000-kilometre border, making cooperation indispensable to tackling trafficking, illegal infiltration and cross-border extremism, particularly given the sensitivity of India’s northeast region. Both governments need to insulate bilateral ties from short-term compulsions. While Hasina remains a welcome and protected guest, the bilateral relationship is too important to be held hostage by any one individual or interest.