West Asia War Enters Fourth Week: US Unconventional Move to Combat Fuel Prices
The war in West Asia has entered its fourth week with another layer of Iranian leadership trimmed down, and the US pulling out what is likely the most unconventional move from its drawer to combat mounting fuel prices. Relations between the US and NATO took a nosedive this week, possibly changing the course of the Western military alliance’s future. At home, Indian agencies arrest six Ukrainians and one American national on terror conspiracy charges. The US-Israeli war against Iran has been raging on for three weeks with no end in sight. Israel, in its most recent ‘decapitation’ strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leadership, took out key military and intelligence figures, including Ali Larijani – the country’s national security chief and de facto wartime leader. On the other hand, Axios reported on Friday that a 2,500-strong US Marine expeditionary force will arrive at the theatre within days. Two more similarly sized units are also heading to the region. Both sides continue to batter each other’s energy installations while Tehran maintains a chokehold on trade along the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the transit for a fifth of global energy supplies. Iran has effectively blocked all trade along this channel – targeting vessels and vowing that not one litre of oil would be exported – driving up global fuel prices. In a bid to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait, the US on Saturday (March 14) struck military sites on Kharg Island. Axios reported on Friday (March 20) that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen the Strait. US President Donald Trump has been growing restless to get allies on board with plans to escort fuel tankers out of the Strait. On Wednesday (March 18), Israel struck Iran’s side of the South Pars natural gas field – the world’s largest natural gas field located in the Persian Gulf and shared between Iran and Qatar. Hours later, Iran hit back, targeting Qatar’s (one of the US’s regional partners) natural gas facilities at Ras Laffan, wiping out 17 per cent of the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production for the next three to five years, Reuters reported. The strikes on South Pars mostly affected Iran, as the country consumes more than 90 per cent of the gas it produces. The Ras Laffan attack affects consumers worldwide. It is significant for India, as New Delhi imported about 11.2 million tonnes of LNG – or 41.4 per cent of its total LNG imports – from Qatar, according to Commerce Ministry data. LPG tankers reach Indian shores: Two tankers – Shivalik and Nanda Devi – safely reached Gujarat ports around March 16 and 17, carrying approximately 92,700 metric tons of LPG. In addition to this Reuters reported that two more tankers — Pine Gas and Jag Vasant – anchored near the Sharjah, UAE, broadcasted that they were preparing for a voyage. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the nuclear talks between the US and Iran barely a day before the war broke out, said, “America has lost control of its own foreign policy,” and claimed that Israel persuaded Washington to go to war with Iran. In a recent piece in The Economist , he warned of a “deep recession” and called out the American and Israeli governments for the “grave miscalculation.” He also called for a return to negotiations. Days after the conflict began, Badr Albusaidi revealed that Tehran had conceded to several of Washington’s demands. These include zero stockpiling of nuclear material, down-blending its existing 60 per cent enriched stockpile to irreversible fuel, and allowing US inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites. The US went ahead with the attack anyway, launching strikes aimed at the regime’s top leadership. Trump is not just facing criticism from US allies in West Asia, but its NATO allies as well. Relations between the US and NATO reached their lowest point, with Washington’s transatlantic defence partners explicitly distancing themselves from the military campaign in West Asia and Trump suggesting that the US should rethink its membership in the organisation. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance founded in 1949 in view of the growing security threat from the erstwhile USSR in Europe. Among its 32 members are the US, Canada, the UK, and France. A cornerstone of the organisation is the collective security guarantee enshrined in Article 5 of its founding treaty, which states that “an armed attack against one… shall be considered an attack against them all”. The organisation’s credibility depends on adversaries believing that all 32 allies will make good on this pledge. NATO invoked Article 5 for the first and only time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the US in 2001. The US’s European allies have relied greatly on the US and its nuclear umbrella provided under this treaty to deter attacks, allowing them to shrink their defence budgets and downsize their militaries. In the US Defence Strategy, published earlier this year, the Pentagon downplayed the Russian military threat to Washington’s European partners and urged them to strengthen their capabilities to fend for themselves. Donald Trump’s second term, much like his time as an Opposition leader, has been characterised by calling NATO partners into question. While Trump’s comments have episodically cast a shadow over transatlantic ties, his aide and US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, provided some respite in February. At a security conference, he said that Europe and America “belong together”, dousing concerns about a rupture. Trump has been pressing countries to send resources to Washington’s aid in West Asia and deploy ships to help open the Strait of Hormuz. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,” Trump said on Sunday. He was rebuffed by some of the US’s closest NATO allies. On Tuesday, following Starmer and Macron’s statements, Trump said he would “rethink” his commitment to NATO. “Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID!” the US President wrote in a post on Truth Social on the same day, singling out Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Since then, France and Germany seem to have backtracked, becoming part of the group of six countries planning to restore trade through Hormuz. Trump lashed out again on Friday calling the coalition a ‘paper tiger’ without ‘Uncle Sam’: “Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!” This isn’t the first time NATO has been split over a decision on military intervention. When the George Bush administration led an attack on Iraq in 2003, Britain and Spain backed the Republican President’s decision, while France and Germany led a group of others vehemently opposed. From nuclear weapons to a cloudy rationale and a split NATO, the circumstances in 2026 are eerily similar. In an unprecedented move to lower oil prices amid the global energy crisis triggered by the war in West Asia, the Trump administration said it plans to remove sanctions on Iranian oil. This comes a week after its temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move would compensate for the oil shortages and prevent Tehran from profiting from hiked oil prices. “We will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign,” Bessent told Fox Business on Thursday. 140 million barrels of Iranian oil: The sanctions exemption would apply to about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that are currently at sea. Bessent added that the unsanctioned oil could go to countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, and India. Since the war started on February 28, Iran has continued to export its oil, most of which is sold to China, despite the sanctions. Meanwhile, the US’s strategic allies in the region, housing its bases (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait), have had their tankers halted. While targeting their assets during the war, Iran vowed that not one litre of oil would be exported. The Islamic Republic had been reeling under sanctions since its founding in 1979. After receiving a brief moment of respite in 2015 during Barack Obama’s administration (2008-16), Donald Trump (in his first term, 2016-2020) reinstated the sanctions, pushing Tehran back to financial isolation. Trump had exerted a “maximum pressure” campaign to make Tehran abandon its nuclear enrichment programme. Bessent’s suggestion reflects the Republican Party’s desperation to reduce oil prices ahead of the US mid-term elections in November. The widespread unpopularity of the war – a poll by The New York Times noted only 41 per cent public support for it in the US – could tilt the numbers in the Democratic Party’s favour in the midterms. Trump rode a wave of anti-interventionist sentiment into office, criticising the Biden administration’s (2020-2024) investment in the war in Ukraine and arguing that the White House should focus on domestic issues first. His actions thus far have contradicted this. The temporary waiver of sanctions is an attempt to contain the fallout from the energy crisis and cushion the blow on American consumers. On Friday afternoon, Benchmark Brent crude was trading at around $103 per barrel, approximately 41 per cent higher than the nearly $73 per barrel just before the war started. Trump has made several attempts to draw a silver lining from the fuel price surge. A week ago – after having made a scramble out of the rationale, objective, and status of the war in public – he said that the US “is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” Earlier this week, Trump went on to say that the US gets only “1%, 2%” of its oil from the Strait. But owing to the Strait’s share in global markets, a cascading effect on US gas prices is imminent. Regardless of his defences, a large number of American households have already begun feeling the pinch of the energy bottleneck. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55 per cent of respondents have “somewhat” been impacted by the gas prices. Among Republican supporters, 42 per cent gave the same answer. Ironically, Trump faces a challenge similar to what Biden dealt with in 2022, when global oil prices were rising sharply before the midterm elections – and to keep prices stable, the White House exempted Russian energy exports from sanctions. 172 million barrels of US strategic reserves: Trump also authorised the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from its strategic reserves starting in late March 2026. 400 million barrels of oil: To provide a little background to readers, the crisis is so severe that last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) – a coalition of 32 countries – agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption. To put it into perspective, in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine and the West imposed sanctions on Moscow’s oil, only 182 million barrels were released. 130 million barrels of Russian oil: The US last week granted a temporary sanctions waiver on 130 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea. Bessent – who had championed the Trump administration’s move to tariff India for importing Russian oil – argued that the decision “will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.” Last year, the US had been pressuring India to abandon Russian oil imports – applying punitive tariffs of 25 per cent on Indian goods in the US in addition to the 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs – in a bid to isolate Moscow. Bessent, Trump, and his aides had singled out New Delhi, asserting that the purchases were fueling the war in Ukraine. Trump faces political headwinds at home and in the White House. Joseph Kent, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned Tuesday, becoming the first and highest-ranking official in Trump’s administration to step down over the ongoing war. In his resignation letter, Kent said he “cannot in good conscience” support the conflict, arguing that Iran did not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States. He also claimed the war was initiated under pressure from Israel and its influential lobby. Six Ukrainians and one American citizen were detained by law enforcement agencies in a coordinated operation last week on charges of conspiring to carry out terrorist activities against India. The group allegedly crossed the border illegally into Myanmar with the intention of carrying out a “pre-scheduled training for Myanmar-based Ethnic Armed Groups (EAGs),” the National Investigation Agency (NIA) said in its FIR. According to the NIA, these EAGs are known to support insurgent organisations operating in India in the domain of “drone warfare, drone operations, assembly and jamming technology etc., targeting the Myanmar Junta”. They had “conducted training for EAGs on more than one (occasion), in addition to illegally importing huge consignments of drones from Europe to Myanmar via India for the use of EAGs,” the NIA said. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian government lodged an “official note of protest” with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), demanding the “immediate release” of its citizens and “unimpeded consular access”. The US national arrested has been identified as Matthew Aaron Van Dyke. He advertises himself as a “freedom fighter and prisoner of war in the Libyan civil war.” Arrested by the then regime of Gaddafi, he was imprisoned for nearly six months before being freed by rebel forces who broke the lock to his cell. Mizoram falls under the Protected Area Permit (PAP), a framework to control the movement of foreigners in sensitive regions of India. Before entering the state, foreign nationals must obtain a PAP. On the other hand, Indian citizens must obtain an Inner Line Permit (ILP) to enter the state. The American national was detained by the Bureau of Immigration at Kolkata airport. Three of the Ukrainians were detained at Lucknow airport and three at Delhi airport. All were brought to Delhi and produced before a magistrate on Saturday (March 14), who remanded them in three days’ custody. On Monday, their custody was extended until March 27, an additional 11 days. Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for February 2026 . Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at manas.srivastava@ indianexpress.com 🚨
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